- |Published: Nov. 10, 2024, 6:00 a.m.
By Carlos Fuentes
While Democrats nationally react to stinging losses in the presidential race and U.S. Senate, Democratic lawmakers in Oregon received a boost in this fall’s election, flipping a key seat in the Legislature to expand their control in the state Senate.
However, the party appears to have failed to flip any seats in the House, leaving it just one seat short of regaining a powerful supermajority in both chambers, which would have allowed it to push through new taxes or increase existing ones without Republican support.
Although Democrats were widely expected to keep their legislative majority, it was less clear whether they could reclaim the three-fifths majority in both chambers they lost in 2022.
In the Senate, they managed to do so, flipping the Bend seat long held by former Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp, who was barred from running for reelection for participating in a walkout during the 2023 legislative session.
Voters in that district had reliably supported Republicans for years before the map was redrawn in the wake of the 2020 census, turning it into what is likely to be a reliably blue district going forward. Democratic Bend City Councilor Anthony Broadman easily beat Redmond School Board Chair Michael Summers, a Republican, to claim the seat, with results as of Friday showing him up 59% to 41%.
“We are thrilled to be in the supermajority again,” Senate Majority Leader Kathleen Taylor, a Democrat from Southeast Portland, told The Oregonian/OregonLive. “Oregonians spoke up and said they wanted the Democrats to be running things, and they had the opportunity to make a different decision, but they absolutely chose the Democrats in a really strong way.”
Democrats didn’t fare quite as well in the House as four vulnerable House Republicans – Reps. Kevin Mannix, Tracy Cramer, Cyrus Javadi and Jeff Helfrich – all appeared to secure reelection.
Helfrich, the House Republican leader, led his Democratic opponent Nick Walden Poublon, a drug and alcohol prevention specialist, by just 1,000 votes as of Friday afternoon. The small margin separating the candidates comes despite Helfrich, who lives in Hood River, outraising his opponent $1 million to only $86,000.
While the race still remains too close to call, Helfrich, who trailed on election night, has since pulled ahead and extended his lead as more votes have been tallied.
Assuming results hold, Democrats will have an 18 to 12 supermajority in the Senate and a 35 to 25 majority in the House.
A Democratic supermajority in the Senate could have implications in next year‘s legislative session, in which lawmakers aim to create more funding sources to address a massive shortfall in Oregon’s transportation budget. However, Democrats’ failure to net any seats in the House could temper their power, especially since revenue bills must originate in the House and Democrats will need at least one Republican vote to pass any tax increases.
Democratic lawmakers are generally more supportive of tax increases than their Republican counterparts. For example, the 2019 Student Success Act, which raised corporate taxes to provide more funding for schools, passed with no Republicans voting in favor.
Officials say the need for more transportation funding is dire. The state transportation agency warned lawmakers earlier this year that it would have to lay off approximately 1,000 workers without more funding, and cities and counties have asked for increased state funding to better maintain their roads and traffic infrastructure.
Even when Democrats had a supermajority, “it definitely was always challenging to (raise taxes), because they’re serious votes,” Taylor said. “You don’t just say yes, you have to really be convinced that it’s the right thing to do.”
Although Republican lawmakers tend to oppose most proposals for new taxes, there are exceptions. Last year, four Republicans voted in favor of a bill that instituted a new tax on landlines and other telecommunications services to fund a suicide prevention hotline.
Republicans say it’s too early to determine which, if any, proposals to increase transportation funding they would support. Work groups are currently sifting through many options, including raising the state’s gas tax or imposing a tax on Oregon drivers based on the number of miles driven.
“We look forward to partnering with our colleagues on both sides of the aisle on bipartisan solutions to tackle our state’s challenges, but House Republicans will also serve as a crucial check against unnecessary tax increases,” Helfrich said in a statement.
Despite their Senate supermajority, top Democrats have said they want any transportation package next year to receive bipartisan support.
They point to past efforts that received bipartisan support, such as lawmakers this year rolling back Oregon’s landmark drug decriminalization law, as evidence that both parties can reach a consensus on the state’s most pressing issues.
“We do need a bipartisan majority in order to pass the transportation package, and I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I think that was always the plan,” said House Majority Leader Ben Bowman, a Democrat from Tigard. “If we’re going to get it done, it’s going to force us all to collaborate and work together.”
Despite some Democrats expressing hope for compromise, some Republicans remain skeptical about the promise of bipartisan cooperation.
“As far as policy goes, under a supermajority, (Democrats) don’t have to have any discussion about it with us,” said Deputy Senate Minority Leader Cedric Hayden, a Republican from Fall Creek. “They just choose what they’re going to put through, and that’s it.”
As the minority party, Republicans have few options to prevent Democrats from passing their full agendas. In recent years, they have increasingly resorted to boycotting floor sessions to deny Democrats the two-thirds quorum necessary to vote on bills, but the days of extended walkouts might be over.
Measure 113, passed by voters in 2022, prohibits lawmakers from running for reelection if they accumulate 10 or more unexcused absences from floor sessions. Ten Republicans who participated in a six-week walkout in 2023 were barred from seeking reelection under the law.
“The whole system is set up so that one side has the authority,” Hayden said. “For me, that’s a bit of a stretch to say, ‘It’s gonna be great, it’s gonna be bipartisan.’ But we’ll see.”
